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The EURUSD snapped a two-week losing streak after closing at 1.0978 for the week on Friday. Markets were thinly-traded due to labor day holidays; with the low volume offering the right conditions for large swings seen in the European afternoon session.
Thursday saw the European Central Bank (ECB) announce further stimulus measures to combat the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the single market. The ECB reaffirmed a pledge to buy 1.1 trillion euros worth of assets this year. The central bank also offered subsidies loans to banks should they lend to companies and households most affected by the outbreak.
The ECB announced a forecast of a 15 percent contraction in the European gross domestic product in the following quarter, which should provide a strong cap on any gains in the near term. Following the announcement, the EURUSD began to pull back from its daily highs. Weakness in the US dollar helped to drive the pair initially higher.
From a technical perspective, the EURUSD was mainly driven by variations in the strength of the US dollar of late. The dollar index DXY has nearly reached it's lower bound of 98.28 suggesting there might not be much room left to drop further. The EURUSD will likely trade in a bearish pattern at the start of this week with a first test at the short-term moving average around the 1.0901 marks.
Strong support will likely be felt at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.08361, which should be the sellers target this week. On the flip side, we believe the previous week's high of 1.10195 will prove the resistANCe level to beat in the coming sessions should the bulls build a convincing case.
(Chart Source: Tradingview 03.05.2020)
Looking ahead on the economic calendar this week, markets will be looking towards the Bank of Englands monetary policy report on Thursday as well as the US non-farm payrolls and unemployment reports for April and Friday. We can expect increased volatility in the run-up to these announcements.
Support & ResistANCe levels:
R3 1.14379
R2 1.12413
R1 1.09970
S1 1.07795
S2 1.06324
S3 1.05261
Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.
本文标题：GOLDWELL：Daily Market Recap - EURUSD Forecast
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