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功能介绍 建银国际
要点: 中国数据四季度如期企稳，复苏预计延续。12月数据反弹幅度超预期：供应链贸易推动进出口双双反弹，汽车和科技行业领衔工业生产复苏，制造业投资回暖，支持我们对周期数据相对市场更为乐观的判断。预计未来数月制造业将延续上行周期全球制造业先行指标指向进一步动能，1月专项债创纪录的发行量也显示国内财政政策可能超前发力，支撑整体经济增速。此外。12月录得新房、二手房价格环比上涨的城市数量双双增加，为19年二季度以来首次，显示房市有所回暖（图1）。近期地方严调控政策有所放松，支持房市走强，也为近期数据带来上行风险。
中美第一阶段贸易协议落地，关注后续谈判。协议全文涵盖知识产权、技术转让、农产品贸易、金融开放、扩大贸易、汇率和纠纷协调机制七大重要领域。协议披露中方将在未来两年增购2000亿美元美国商品和服务，金融服务开放加快。中方说明，若出现协议没有及时得到落实的情况，双方约定将首先通过磋商探讨解决方案，力争避免矛盾升级。另外，汇率政策将遵守IMF框架，避免竞争性贬值。接下来，第二阶段谈判将进入深水区，预计会涉及前期双方争议较大的行业政策和国企补贴问题。
近期人民币汇率走强，与我们年度预测一致。预计人民币汇率将偏向强势。贸易及工业数据走强，和外资流入提速均将支持人民币汇率。我们将年中和年末的人民币汇率预测小幅调整到6.8。
美国消费数据好于预期，支持经济。美国12月零售数据好于预期，11月增速则小幅下调。感恩节假期偏迟对数据有一定影响。但12月核心PPI通胀受医疗服务行业拖累低于预期，预示着2019年底PCE通胀仍远低于联储通胀目标，联储也无加息压力。在弱通胀，经济坚挺且消息面向好的背景下，美股再创新高，美国10年期国债利率周内持平。
LPR利率报价预计维持不变。开年降准后，央行在周四发布会上表态趋紧，一是提出未来降准空间有限，二是注意到企业实际贷款利率年末已明显下降，暗示不急于进一步降息。过去一周，7天回购利率上行幅度明显，市场流动性趋紧，我们预计银行在节前下调LPR利率报价的动力不强。然而，上半年央行仍有空间降息，央行近期表示2020年将灵活运用存款准备金率、中期借贷便利、公开市场操作、常备借贷便利等货币政策工具。在降低实体经济融资成本的目标驱动下，我们预计央行仍有可能继续小幅下调公开市场操作利率。
受春节假期扰动，中国制造业PMI预计小幅下跌。由于今年春节假期提前，1月份工作天数减少，对生产数据有一定负面影响。高频数据则好坏参半：六大电厂发电量季调值环比下跌，而全国高炉开工率上行，工业金属和能源价格小幅走高。工业行业虽处在上升周期，但1月生产天数的减少将对PMI数据构成一定干扰，数据的复苏预计在2/3月份报告中延后出现。
美联储、欧洲央行开年会议，预计维持政策立场不变。近期宏观走势支持货币政策维持不变：全球制造业企稳回升，商业信心和市场预期回暖。贸易政策层面风险降低，除中美达成第一阶段协议外，美国国会近日也通过了美加墨贸易协议。我们预计欧美央行短期内将按兵不动。利率期货价格显示市场预期年内美联储和欧洲央行都将维持政策利率不变，暂无升息预期。
英文报告如下：
Economic recovery well on track
· Chinas data bottomed out in 4Q as we expected; recovery likely to continue
Dec data surprises on the upside: export and import growth rebounded on recovering supply-chain trade. IP accelerated driven by the auto and tech sectors, while investment growth firmed up thanks to a strong rebound in the manufacturing sector. The latest data is consistent with our forecast of an upswing in the industrial cycle supporting growth. We look for current growth momentum to continue at least through the coming months as the global industrial cycle picks up and policymakers front-load fiscal support through record-high project bond issuANCes.
In addition, the number of cities recording month-over-month increases in new and second-hand housing prices picked up in Dec, the first time this has happened since the second quarter of 2019, indicating the housing market may have warmed up. Tightening policies have been relaxed, supporting the housing market and giving rise to upside risk for the data in the near term.
· China-US phase-one deal signed; all eyes turn to next round of negotiatio
The agreement encompasses intellectual property, technology transfers, agriculture, finANCial services, currency, expanding trade and dispute resolution. China will purchase an additional US$200b of US goods and services over the next two years and accelerate the opening-up of its finANCial sector. China also stated that if any party fails to fulfill its commitment as agreed, the two sides would attempt to find a solution through consultation first, and strive to avoid an escalation of conflicts. In addition, the Exchange rate policy will comply with the IMF surveillANCe framework and avoid competitive devaluation. The next stage of bilateral dialog is expected to involve issues of industrial policy and subsidies for state-owned enterprises.
The strengthening of the renminbi Exchange rate is in line with our expectation. Stronger trade and industrial data coupled with acceleration in foreign capital inflows, will continue to support the renminbi Exchange rate. We revise our USDCNY forecasts from 7.0 and 6.9 to 6.8 and 6.8 for end-Jun and end-2020F, respectively.
· US consumption better than expected, but inflationary pressure still absent
US retail sales data for Dec came in better than expected, though the growth rate in Nov was lowered slightly. The Thanksgiving calendar effects were partly to blame for this as sales of all major categories increased in Dec. In particular, catering services rebounded after declining for two consecutive months. At the same time, core PPI inflation data for Dec was dragged lower than expected by medical services, suggesting that PCE inflation at the end of 2019 will stay well below the Feds 2% target. Amid weak inflation, improving growth and positive news, US stocks hit new highs, and the US 10-year Treasury yield was flat from a week ago.
Whats next？
· LPR likely hold once agai
Latest signals from the PBoC are for a pause in easing before Chinese New Year. The PBoC notes there will be limited space for future RRR cuts. In addition, the central bank noticed that the actual lending rate fell meaningfully in Dec 2019, suggesting there is no rush to cut the interest rate again. Over the past week, the seven-day repo rate rose sharply. With liquidity tightening, we do not see a strong incentive for the banks to reduce their LPR interest rate quotations next week. Nevertheless, slower easing does not mean the PBoC has suspended easing once and for all. The central bank recently stated it would continue to use the tools at its disposal such as RRR, MLF, OMOs and SLF in 2020F. Driven by the goal of reducing borrowing cost in the real economy, we expect the PBoC to reduce OMO rates further this year.
· China Manufacturing PMI expected to edge down in Jan given the earlier holiday
Due to the earlier Chinese New Year holidays this year (VS. 2019), the number of working days decreased in Jan, which will weigh on production data. High-frequency data so far has been mixed: coal consumption by the six major power plants declined sequentially while the national blast furnace operating rate went up. Industrial metal and energy prices also climbed. The decline in production days in Jan will interfere with the PMI data and a further recovery in the data is expected to be shown in the Feb-Mar report.
· Fed, ECB to leave policies unchanged
Improvement in the macro outlook since 4Q19 supports the two major central banks sticking with their current monetary policy entering 2020F. For one, the global manufacturing sector is stabilizing and is poised for a rebound. Business confidence and market expectations are also picking up as uncertainties surrounding trade policy have declined. In addition to the phase-one agreement between China and the US, the US Congress recently passed the US-Canada-MEXico trade deal. Given the above, we expect the ECB and the Fed to stay on its current course in the short term. Interest rate futures indicate that the market is expecting no change throughout the year.
近期报告一览:
1月 13日 : 宏观周报：
年末数据预计显示经济企稳回升
1月 6日 : 宏观周报：
央行继续降准，制造业企稳回升
12月23日 : 宏观周报：
数据反弹，制造业有望继续向好
12月 16日 : 宏观周报：
中美达成阶段性贸易协议，贸易战风险趋缓
12月 9日 : 宏观周报：
科技类贸易如期回暖，欧美央行预计按兵不动
12月 2日 :
宏观周报：PMI反弹超预期，市场静待关税决定
11月25日 :
本文标题：建银国际：宏观周报：年末数据反弹，稳步复苏仍在路上
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