US Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as investors braced themselves for the imminent signing of a phase 1 trade deal between the world's two largest economies, China and the US. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped two basis points to 1.794 percent, reflecting the increasing demand for safe-haven products in the wake of rising uncertainty and underwhelming US economic data.
Ahead of the signing of the interim trade deal, US treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin cast a shadow over the proceedings as he suggested the US would maintain tariffs on goods from China until the completion of a second “phase 2” agreement. Market sentiment was dampened after his remarks and investors are now concerned about the potential to backslide in the negotiations.
On the data front, the US producer price index released by the Bureau of Labour Statistics came in at 1.1 percent, below expectations of 1.3 percent. The index measures the average change in prices from a producer's point of view. Markets are now expecting the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for the short term at least. Gold prices are likely to benefit from the status quo.
Over to the Middle East, the major European signatories to the Iran nuclear deal have launched the dispute resolution mechanism within the agreement in response to Iran's loosening of the uranium enrichment limits. Tensions will remain in the region for the time being and any escalation could lead to a significant surge in gold prices.
(Chart Source: Tradingview 15.01.2020)
Looking at the technical perspective, we can see that gold prices are holding firm below the 1,553 handles as investors are seemingly unwilling to buy into the precious metal above that threshold. The current range stands at 1,553 and 1,535 which correspond to the resistANCe and support levels respectively. All else equal, we can expect gold prices to push further higher along the pitchfork channel as we see the moving averages starting to tip up slightly. Bullish targets can be set around the 1,560 level, up to the weekly high of 1,562. On the flip side, should tensions in the Middle East decrease and the US - China trade deal be signed without any hiccups, gold bears may be looking at pushing the price towards its 2-week low of 1,535. With the RSI settling in close to oversold levels, a case can be made for a short-term downward correction.
Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.
本文标题:GOLDWELL:Daily Market Recap - GOLD
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