So, let's start with the data.Exports from China increased by 7.6% year-on-year to USD 237.65Bn in December, the first increase in five months and well above market expectations of a 3.2% rise. Imports into China climbed 16.3% from a year earlier to USD 190.86Bn in December, the highest number since October 2018 and significantly above market forecasts of a 9.6% increase. Unwrought copper imports rose 22.8% to their highest since March 2016 and iron ore purchases were 16.9% higher at a 27-month high. Imports also advANCed for refined products (9.9%), crude oil (3.9%), natural gas (3%), copper ores & concentrates (31.8%), soybeans (66.8%), edible vegetable oil (21.8%), and rubber (9.1%). Putting aside basis effects from the weak 2018 starting point, if we look at the composition of these purchases can we surmise there is an undercurrent of infrastructure spending in the copper and iron ore numbers？ If so, that would be confirmed in the Fixed Asset Investment number YoY Dec which is due out on Friday may surprise on the upside. With suitable confirmation, one might be tempted to say that the acceleration of the issuANCe of municipal special bonds for infrastructure spending has led to restocking and that the inventory cycle in the Chinese economy is beginning to bottom out.China's trade surplus narrowed to USD 46.79Bn in December slightly below market expectations of USD 48.0Bn. China's trade surplus with the US decreased to USD 23.18Bn in December from USD 24.6Bn in November. Looking at full-year China posted a USD 295.8Bn surplus with the US in 2019, down from USD 323.3Bn in 2018, with exports droPPIng 12.5% and imports cratering 20.9%.However, changes in trade with the US amounted to a reshuffling of the supply chain as China Inc. continued to plough ahead, the trade surplus globally widened to USD 424.9Bn in 2019 from USD 350.9 in 2018, with exports rising by 0.5% and imports falling 2.8%.Whatever is published at the Phase 1 trade deal event later today, one must remember China is not inventing USD200bn of extra trade purchases. The trade that the US receives will be lost by European, South American and Asian trade partners. Trumps jubilation will be offset by a deep disappointment in many capital cities., therefore this deal will not in itself revive Global Trade.The Baltic Dry index of global shiPPIng prices is still down over 20% in January so far. But, even now the policy levers in Beijing are moving, the RMB has strengthened to 6.89 making the cost of this armistice with the US considerably cheaper, a weak RMB is no longer required.Have a good daySUS91联合｜一站式招商信息整合平台

　　John Browning先生于2002至2004年担任伦敦金属交易所LME的董事会成员和电子商务委员会主席，被业界公认在建立LME电子交易平台方面做出过突出贡献。SUS91联合｜一站式招商信息整合平台

　　2008年，在移居到亚洲之前，Browning先生为伦敦巴克莱资本集团Barclays Capital电子交易部董事。在新际金融Newedge任职香港金属部主管时，他与石成虎先生共同开发了世界上第一个可同时交易国内和国外期货市场的套利交易系统。创立磐石之前，Browning先生任职Jefferies香港商品部董事总经理SUS91联合｜一站式招商信息整合平台