建银国际：宏观周报：疫情持续，关注元宵节后复产复工情况 -91联合

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建银国际：宏观周报：疫情持续，关注元宵节后复产复工情况

2020-02-10 09:55:18

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　　要点: 严防控措施持续，元宵节后逐步复工。疫情控制方面持续有好消息，全国新增确诊病例过去一周趋向稳定，潜在受波及人群不再加速上行：新增疑似和新增密切接触者趋稳，且新增留观人数下跌。节后复工推迟，多个省份地区要求不早于2月9号开工，正月初七至元宵节全国客流量同比下跌86%。元宵节后的未来两周复工情况较为关键。中央疫情工作小组周四召开会议，要求有序做好恢复生产保障供应工作，采取隔座乘车、乘机等措施，实现人员错峰返程，降低疫情传播风险。交通运输部对疫情防控期间地方政府组织的农民工返岗包车免收高速公路通行费并优先便捷通行。经济活动恢复正常尚需时间，预计一季度工业生产增速将回落0.5-0.8个百分点。二季度则随生产恢复正常，反弹回升至6%附近。

　　与此同时，海外超过90个国家及地区对中国实施旅游限制令。中国旅游服务进口占全球GDP的0.3%，短期中国出境商务和旅游消费的急剧下跌将对一季度全球经济构成负面影响。

　　中央、地方针对性加大政策支持力度。针对困难行业和中小微企业的政策措施陆续出台，主要有四大方面：一是保障金融支持，对受影响的中小微企业不抽贷、不断贷，降低困难企业贷款利率；二是财政补贴和税费减免，包括减免困难企业房产税和城镇土地使用税、补贴住院费和线上培训费；三是社保费用减免或延期缴纳，对不裁员、少减员的企业退还部分失业金，缓缴社会保险费和住房公积金；四是其他企业成本压减，包括电费、租金和担保费率减免。

　　美国1月数据坚挺，需求向好。美国制造业和非制造业ISM指数1月双双强势回弹，制造业新订单指数止跌回升，创2019年6月以来新高。劳动市场数据向好，新增非农就业人数大超预期，1月回升至22.5万（图１）。平均小时工资增速微幅上扬，同比回至3.1%。失业率小幅上升至3.6%，但同时因劳动参与率提高，就业市场新增劳动力对失业率有一定影响。市场风险情绪继续得到修复，10年期国债收益率回升8bp至1.58%。美元虽继续升值，人民币则维持在区间内波动。

　　CPI短暂升至5%附近，PPI继续复苏。由于今年春节假期提前，节前价格上涨提前，我们预计受去年低基数推动CPI同比继续上涨至5%附近。近期高频数据显示食品价格受疫情影响，节后回弹（图２），若维持高位，将对短期通胀构成一定压力。能源价格虽下滑，但金属价格上涨，PPI环比预计持平，同比继续复苏，由-0.5%至0%附近。

　　1月信贷数据迎来爆发增长。地方政府债单月发行量破记录，超7000亿。信用债发行量也冲高至4700亿左右。若贷款增速持稳，1月新增贷款预计达到2.9万亿，社会融资总量将增长4.2万亿。而社融增速受去年高基数影响将小幅下跌至10.4%。

　　英文报告如下：

　　Macro Weekly: Chinese production to gradually resume after the Lantern Festival

　　Chinese production to gradually resume after the Lantern Festival

　　With strict epidemic controls implemented in China, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases, though still increasing, is doing so at a slower pace. The number of potentially affected people has also not accelerated further. Resumption of work following the Chinese New Year holidays has been significantly delayed, with many provinces and regions requiring workers to return to work no earlier than 9 Feb. We noted that national passenger flows fell 86% compared with the same period after Chinese New Year. A recovery in production in the next two weeks is critical. Towards this end, the central government on Thursday demanded an orderly restoration of production with precautions taken to reduce the risk of coronavirus transmission. As economic activities slowly recover, we estimate industrial production growth will slow by 0.5-0.8 ppt in 1Q but to bounce back in 2Q.

　　At the same time, more than 90 countries or regions overseas have imposed travel restrictions on foreign nationals traveling from China. China's tourism service imports account for 0.3% of global GDP. The sharp drop in Chinese outbound travel will drag global economic growth down slightly in 1Q.

　　Chinese policy supports stepped up for affected sectors and SME

　　Over the past week, the central government and local governments introduced a series of policies to alleviate pressure on affected sectors and SMEs. There were four major initiatives: (1) enhANCe finANCial support by reducing loan interest rates and asking finANCial institutions to avoid withdrawing lending to affected SMEs; (2) increase fiscal support with exemption/reduction of certain types of taxes (e.g. urban land use tax) and subsidies to SMEs for medical spending or online training fees; (3) reduce or defer social security fees, for instANCe to refund unemployment insurANCe fees to enterprises to control lay-offs; and (4) cutting other costs of the corporate sector through such measures as electricity fare exemptions and rental exemptions.

　　US data rebounded strongly in Ja

　　Both the US Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing ISM indexes rebounded strongly in Jan. The New Orders Index for the manufacturing sector stopped falling and jumped above 50, the highest reading since Jun 2019. Labor market data also came in firmer than expected. Non-farm payrolls gained 225k in Jan, much more than expected despite market concerns over the Boeing production disruption. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.6%, partly due to the increase in labor participation. As a result of the tightness in the labor market, the average hourly wage growth rate firmed up to 3.1% YoY. Market risk sentiment continued to improve, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising 8 bp to 1.58%. Despite the US dollar appreciation, the renminbi Exchange rate remains range-bound.

　　Whats next？

　　CPI approaching 5%, PPI continues to recover

　　Due to the low base last year, we expect CPI will continue to rise to around 5% YoY in Jan. Recent high-frequency data shows that food prices remained strong even after Chinese New Year. Increased food stocking demand during the epidemic period and transport restrictions may have contributed to price increases. Elevated food prices will add some upward pressure on short-term inflation, although we believe it will start to fall later in the year. Meanwhile, the mix of rising metal prices with declining energy prices will probably see PPI holding flat month-on-month. In year-on-year terms, it will continue to recover from - 0.5% to 0%.

　　Total social finANCing to record a massive gain in Ja

　　Apart from the seasonal surge of bank lending in Jan, we note that bond market activities were buoyant this year. Net issuANCe of local government bonds exceeded RMB700b, a record high, while corporate bond issuANCe picked up to RMB470b. If bank lending growth remains steady, new yuan loans are expected to reach RMB2.9t in Jan. Total social finANCing (TSF) will increase by RMB4.2t. However, TSF growth is likely to moderate down to 10.4% YoY, from 10.7% YoY in Dec 2019 due to the high base last year.

　　US retail data is expected to remain strong but core CPI to weake

　　Market Consensus forecasts US retail sales will maintain solid expansion in Jan. That said, core CPI inflation may remain moderate. On the policy side, the House of Representatives will hold a hearing on monetary policy and the economy next week. Fed Chairman Powell will give testimony later this week. He recently noted that the coronavirus will add uncertainty to the US economic outlook.

　　近期报告一览:

　　2月 3日 : 宏观视野 - 新春第一役：

　　新冠病毒疫情将如何影响中国经济？

　　1月 20日 : 宏观周报：

　　年末数据反弹，稳步复苏仍在路上

　　1月 13日 : 宏观周报：

　　年末数据预计显示经济企稳回升

　　1月 6日 : 宏观周报：

　　央行继续降准，制造业企稳回升

　　12月23日 : 宏观周报：

　　数据反弹，制造业有望继续向好

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