建银国际：宏观周报：宏观政策定调积极，工业生产现筑底迹象 -91联合

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建银国际：宏观周报：宏观政策定调积极，工业生产现筑底迹象

2020-02-24 11:38:06

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宏观工业生产现筑积极迹象定调

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　　功能介绍建银国际

　　要点: 复工复产加速。疫情防控走向积极，新增确诊人数跌破千例，新增疑似病例减少，医学留观病例加速下跌。国务院要求分区分级做好疫情防控，低风险地区要全面恢复正常生产生活秩序[1]。各地陆续出台支持复产复工的相关政策，广东浙江加速招揽外地人员返岗，包括与劳务输出地建立健康检测互认机制，为外地人员提供“门到门”客运服务。高频数据显示电厂耗煤量近日已有筑底回升迹象，我们预计在疫情防控得当的情形下，各地将加速复工，制造业在2月底进入复苏阶段。

　　年初专项债放量，积极财政政策将更积极，央行释放降息信号。1月新增银行贷款和社会融资总额高于预期。特别是地方政府专项债的放量发行支撑了社融增速企稳。政治会议要求积极的财政政策要更加积极有为，发挥好政策性金融作用，研究出台阶段性、有针对性的减税降费政策。我们预计专项债发行将在短期内加速，针对住宿餐饮、交通运输等行业的税费减免缓缴政策有望推出。货币政策则将继续维持有限宽松。近几周银行间流动性充裕（图1），央行已开始减少流动性注入。四季度货币政策报告中，央行强调不搞“大水漫灌”，将继续保持流动性合理充裕，加大对防疫重点企业的支持力度。上周LPR利率下调后，央行表示也将适时调整存款基准利率。其他方面，政府将主要运用差别化的信贷政策来减轻疫情的负面影响，保持房地产金融政策的连续性，但加大力度帮扶住宿餐饮、文体娱乐、交通运输、旅游等受疫情影响严重的行业。

　　社保减免、稳外贸、促消费、松地产等针对性支持措施出台。国常会决定阶段性减免企业社保费和企业缓缴住房公积金政策。湖北外其他省份2至6月可对中小微企业免征养老等保险单位缴费，2至4月可对大型企业减半征收。湖北省从2月到6月可对各类参保企业实行免征。企业可缓缴住房公积金，受疫情影响的延期还款不做逾期处理。稳外贸方面，政治局会议提出用好出口退税、出口信用保险等合规的外贸政策工具，商务部出台20条措施稳外贸稳外资促消费，通过简化程序、网上办理等方式帮助外贸企业尽快复工。促消费方面，商务部提出要支持商贸流通企业创新经营服务模式（如共享员工、无店铺销售），释放新兴消费潜力尤其是网上消费，优化便利店和菜市场布局；佛山首推购车补贴。地产政策方面，陆续有更多城市推出土地出让金缓缴政策，允许延期开工、竣工和交付，并有多个城市（无锡、福州、厦门、苏州）放宽预售条件。

　　欧美2月制造业数据多数向好，但疫情全球扩散下，市场谨慎情绪渐浓。2月Markit欧元区制造业PMI好于预期，继续回弹。Markit美国PMI虽下滑，但美国地区联储制造业调查2月超预期继续上行。中国境内疫情虽受到控制，全球疫情有扩大趋势。欧美股指按周下跌，债市和汇市谨慎情绪较浓。美债10年期利率跌破1.5%，美元指数上涨，人民币贬至7以上。

　　2月中国制造业PMI预计受疫情影响短暂下跌。受疫情影响，制造业停工，我们预计2月PMI将录得一次性大幅下滑。2月至今6大电厂日均耗煤量环比急速下跌（图2），但近日耗煤量有筑底回升迹象。服务业除超市和便利店开业率保持高位外，餐饮和电影服务活动依然低迷。金融市场方面，2月至今地方债发行基本停滞。而一线城市地产土拍火热，部分二线城市跟进放松预售标准，可关注未来几周地产销售是否领先其他服务业提前反弹。

　　美国PCE通胀小幅上升，欧元区CPI维持疲软。继1月PPI涨幅远超预期后，市场预期美国核心PCE通胀1月有望小幅回升至1.7%，仍弱于联储通胀目标。同时，市场预计欧元区2月通胀走缓，在1%左右徘徊，2020年全年通胀可能维持在低位不变。

　　[1]低风险地区，要实施“外防输入”策略，全面恢复正常生产生活秩序。中风险地区，要实施“外防输入、内防扩散”策略，尽快有序恢复正常生产生活秩序。高风险地区，要实施“内防扩散、外防输出、严格管控”策略，根据疫情态势逐步恢复生产生活秩序。

　　英文报告如下：

　　Chinese production shows signs of bottoming as policy stANCe signals more support

　　· Production bottoming in China as new viral cases decline

　　Chinas epidemic prevention and control has proven effective, with the number of newly diagnosed and newly suspected cases on the decline. Against this backdrop, the State Council has asked local governments to carry out differentiated prevention measures and avoid over restricting people flows. The coastal economic engines – Guangdong and Zhejiang – have expedited the recruitment of migrant workers by providing “door-to-door” transportation services and streamlining health checks. High-frequency data including coal consumption at power plants has shown signs that production is bottoming out. We maintain our view that the manufacturing sector will begin to recover at the end of Feb.

　　· Chinas Politburo promotes a more expansionary fiscal stANCe while PBoC signals a deposit rate cut

　　Chinas Jan bank loans and total social finANCing (TSF) came in firmer than expected. While bank lending growth moderated as we expected, buoyant local government bond issuANCe helped overall TSF growth hold steady. We expect the issuANCe of local government bonds and policy finANCial bonds to re-accelerate in coming weeks as the recent Politburo meeting indicates a more expansionary fiscal policy. Liquidity easing is likely to remain measured in the near-term. Noting ample liquidity in the markets, the PBoC has been rolling back liquidity injections in recent weeks. It also reiterated a “no broad easing” decree in its latest monetary policy report. That said, following reductions in the LPR, the PBoC signaled the benchmark deposit rate could be lowered when appropriate. As for credit policy, we believe support will mainly target mitigating the impact on affected sectors, including catering, hospitality, entertainment, transportation and tourism services. In contrast, credit policy for the property sector will remained unchanged.

　　· Policymakers step up support for consumer sector

　　The State Council decided to waive part of the social security payments for companies for up to five months. Outside Hubei, SMEs will be exempted from paying certain social security fees from Feb to Jun, and those for large enterprises will be cut in half from Feb to Apr. Meanwhile, companies in Hubei will enjoy full exemption until Jun. Contributions to the housing provident funds may also be postponed. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce has released measures to support foreign trade, FDI and consumption by simplifying administrative procedures and advANCing fiscal spending towards affected sectors. These measures will support online consumption and new business models such as contactless delivery. As for the housing sector, more cities are beginning to ease up on land payments due from developers. A number of cities, including Wuxi, Fuzhou, Xiamen and Suzhou, have also relaxed pre-sale requirements.

　　· Markets retreat on viral outbreak outside China; manufacturing data holds u

　　Feb Markit PMI reports for the euro area point to a solid recovery in the regions manufacturing sector despite the virus outbreak. Although US Markit PMI weakened, regional manufacturing reports defied market expectations by strengthening further in Feb. Nevertheless, market concerns about the COVID-19 outbreak outside China drove equity indexes to decline. The FX and rates markets also remained cautious while the 10-year UST yield fell below 1.5%. The Dollar Index climbed to nearly 100, causing the renminbi to dip.

　　Whats next？

　　· China Feb manufacturing to suffer small di

　　We expect Chinas official PMI to see a sharp but temporary decline in Feb given the suspension of production after the virus outbreak. Coal consumption by major power plants fell sharply in Feb, but appeared to bottom out thereafter. Most of the consumer services sector was still in suspended animation, however. As for the finANCial markets, the issuANCe of local government bonds was muted month to date. Land auctions in first-tier cities were buoyant and followed up with a relaxation of regulations on pre-sales in second-tier cities. Whether or not these relaxation measures will boost housing sales in the following weeks is still undetermined.

　　· US PCE inflation edges up, but euro area CPI remains sluggish

　　Following the upbeat Jan PPI report, the market expects US core PCE inflation to edge up to 1.7% YoY in Jan, which would still be weaker than the Fed target. In the euro area, market consensus forecasts weakening inflation in Feb to around 1% YoY, likely remaining unchanged in 2020F from 2019.

　　近期报

　　告一览:

　　2月17日 :

　　宏观周报：

　　政策表态：有序复工，支持经济

　　2月10日 :

　　宏观周报：

　　疫情持续，关注元宵节后复产复工情况

　　2月 3日 : 宏观视野 - 新春第一役：

　　新冠病毒疫情将如何影响中国经济？

　　1月 20日 : 宏观周报：

　　年末数据反弹，稳步复苏仍在路上