Gold slid sharply in mid-week Trading down 1.68 percent at the time of writing, extending losses from Tuesday following the release of upbeat economic data from the US and Europe. Traders have taken the cue to dump the non-yielding precious metal in favor of riskier assets in an attempt to ride the optimism wave higher.
Rising global equities have put gold under pressure after reaching multi-month highs in May. The move highlights the growing upbeat sentiment over the potential for a speedier than expected recovery in the global economy post-covid-19.
Gold appears to have gone as far as it could after the recent large economic stimulus packages helped drive demand toward the metal. The bottom line is that gold is losing its appeal as the global economy picks itself up, reducing the need for further stimulus from central banks and thus decreasing the need for inflation hedges in the short term.
The current civil unrest in the US has fuelled speculation of downside caps on gold though the relationship seems shaky at best. Unless the situation degrades to a point where the US economy is crippled, gold prices should be relatively unaffected by the protests in the US. Traders are more focused on the rate of recovery in the Chinese economy, using it as a proxy for the rest of the world, notably Australia and New Zealand.
From a macro perspective, a bullish bet on gold may still be supported given that the long-lasting effects of recently enacted monetary policies will only be discovered at a much later date. Though analysts point out that gold bulls had the opportunity to move towards the 2,000 targets when equities were falling but subsequently failed to do so, indicating a push that high is likely unfeasible in the current context.
Looking at the technical picture, gold bounced off the 1,690.29 support level indicating the presence of buyers returning at that price point. The correction seen today will likely hover around the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at 1,704.68. A close above or below should dictate the short-term direction in the metal.
(Chart Source: Tradingview 03.06.2020)
On the downside, should selling pressure continue to dominate under a backdrop of strengthening the global economy, gold may edge lower towards the next range between 1,670 – 1,630. Current momentum and RSI indicators point to a further drop in gold prices in the short term.
Disclaimer: This material has been created for information purposes only. All views expressed in this document are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinions of any entity.
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