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磐石金融:No 668 - New data car crash
2021-05-10 13:42:58
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  磐石金融有限公司( BANDS FinANCial Limited )在香港注册成立,是一家持有香港证监会(SFC)2号牌照的期货经纪公司,业务涉及中国以外全球大部分活跃期货及期权市场。XtL91联合|一站式招商信息整合平台

  Tomorrow we have a car crash of Chinese data, as China inflation, PPI, vehicle sales, new loans, loan growth, total social finANCing and money supply will give media reporters and pundits a torrid time, but, the most anticipated data set release this week is not on the usual data schedule, as tomorrow the details of the seventh national population census will be released. Those outside China will probably not have a feeling for why this is such a big deal in China, but it is, as in terms of population, China has already forgone a lot.Throughout November and December 2020 some 7 million census takers roughly one to every 200 persons went from door to door to collect and collate the information, as government infrastructure and social welfare policies are guided by demographic composition. Indeed, the vision of empty apartment blocks and desolate shoPPIng malls in third-tier cities are to some extent based on faulty demographic assumptions. China watchers will be looking at the comparisons between 2010 and 2020 indeed the FT published a series of articles pre-empting tomorrow‘s data release saying that China’s population had recently fallen, an idea that Beijing has already pushed back. Indeed, the census taker did call at Browning Towers with most of our data already pre-loaded on her phone, (software provided by Tencent), to which we confirmed a few details, and as foreigners are not that interesting, having no impact on education, health or social welfare, she moved on.Certainly, demographic analysis is like playing chess with extra or fewer pieces set out on the board, where the game will end up is conjecture, but looking at the pieces one has, some broad forward-looking observations might be made. According to a report in the LANCet published in Sept 2020 the population of China currently 1.4 bn and is projected to remain unchanged towards 2050 then drop to 732 million by 2100, a drop of 48%. I‘m not about to discuss an 80-year prediction, but it is an arresting thought to imagine China’s most populous cities as half empty. As I write this morning Dalian Iron ore for August and September are jammed at up 10% limit up, Shanghai Bonded copper is up 4.5% and after falling through outlast week Chinas stock indices are unchanged to down 0.25%. As the commodity markets are awash with a western driven green-super-cycle sentiment, it only highlights in a post-covid world how siloed we have become in terms of information and mentality.Have a good dayXtL91联合|一站式招商信息整合平台

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