原创wU791联合｜一站式招商信息整合平台

　　BANDSFinANCialwU791联合｜一站式招商信息整合平台

　　磐石金融有限公司（ BANDS FinANCial Limited ）在香港注册成立，是一家持有香港证监会（SFC）2号牌照的期货经纪公司，业务涉及中国以外全球大部分活跃期货及期权市场。wU791联合｜一站式招商信息整合平台

　　I believe bad NEWS should be delivered quickly and without embellishment. So, in data released by the PBOC during the weekend, China‘s banks extended RMB 645.4 billion in new yuan loans in April, the lowest since December of 2017 and well below market expectations of RMB 1515 billion. To put this slowdown into perspective, the lending in March was RMB 3,130 billion, so the April print is a -80% swan dive in just 30 days as credit demand has collapsed due to the operational difficulties of the economy due to extended coronavirus lockdowns. At the same time, Total Social FinANCing, (TSF) a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy decreased to RMB 910.2 billion in April, the lowest level since February 2020 and more than half of market forecasts of RMB 2150.0 billion. Whereas, the broad M2 money supply rose 10.5% from a year earlier, the strongest increase since November 2020, beating market forecasts of 9.9%.There is a lot of bad news in these numbers. Firstly, why are new loans falling？ One would think in the current circumstANCes companies should be rushing to their banks to cover covid driven disruptions to their income streams. However, reports suggest banks are not creating new loans only preferring to extend the terms of current loans beyond their due date to current borrowers, which is small comfort to small and medium-size companies which may be looking at newly arrived cash flow Armageddon. The contraction of the TSF highlights the problems in the domestic sector responding to the demand for household loans falling as property sales in the top 30 cities are down 54% YoY and auto sales have contracted by 36% YoY. However, the M2 number suggests liquidity is abundant in the banking system. Clearly these funds are not getting through to the broad economy but stoPPIng at the banking level.In response, on Sunday the PBOC announced that the mortgage rate floor for first-time homebuyers will be reduced to 20bp below the 5-year LPR, Previously it was the straight LPR 4.6%. Meanwhile, the mortgage rate floor for second-time home buyers remains unchanged at LPR+60bp or 5.2%. Clearly for first-time buyers, it is not a big saving, but as the first action taken at a national level to support the housing market, as a signal it is significant. Ultimately, we are waiting for the PBOC cannons, a cut in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and a cut in the RRR, until then everything else is of a minor calibre. This morning at 10am we had Industrial Production YoY April actual -2.9% (previous 5% forecast 0.4%) Retail Sales YoY April actual -11.1 (previous -3.5% forecast -6.0%) and Unemployment rate April actual 6.8% (previous 5.8% forecast 6.0%). Well, I expected poor, but these are far worse than expected, and the accompanying statement by the National Bureau of Statistics is stark. The “increasingly grim and complex international environment and greater shock of the Covid-19 pandemic at home obviously exceeded expectation, new downward pressures on the economy continued to grow.” The bureau then adds a positive forward-looking coda that the impact of Covid is temporary and that the economy “is expected to stabilize and recover.” Which, well, is nice, but when it will improve they can say nothing. This morning’s data completes the major Chinese data releases until the end of the month and we move into a period largely dependent on our old friends, conjecture and rumour. So, this morning the Shanghai government is hopeful of reopening the compounds soon, as 15 of 16 city districts have achieved “social clearANCe” of covid infection, and proposed a three-stage reopening. From now to May 21, the focus will be on reducing new and current infection spread and preventing a rebound. The second stage from May 22 to May 31 will be the transition stage to “normalized prevention and control.” The third stage: From June 1 to mid-late June is aimed at fully restoring the whole city, under the premise of strictly preventing the rebound of the epidemic. So being able to walk from your house to the nearest supermarket is stage two and opening the Metro and enabling cross-town flows is stage three, which I would guess won't happen for another month.wU791联合｜一站式招商信息整合平台

　　Have a good dayRegards JohnwU791联合｜一站式招商信息整合平台