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原文发表于美国时间2020-3-19
因为固定收益市场以较股票市场更快的反应速度应对冠状病毒蔓延所带来的巨大经济冲击和可能的衰退，G7国家的债券收益率在第一季度剧烈下挫至历史低点。
不过自3月初以来，因为各国的领导者推出了大规模的财政刺激计划和货币刺激政策，政府债券收益率相应地急剧回升，并且收益率曲线变陡峭（部分国家的财政刺激计划占GDP的20%-25%）。
（债券市场）近期的这些走势意味着，在预期今年第一和第二季度经济的严重下跌后，债券市场很可能在展望今年晚些时候出现的经济增长反弹。
图表1：7-10年期国债收益率因刺激政策而大幅回升
来源：富时罗素。2020年3月17日。过去的表现并不意味着未来的结果。请参见结尾的法律信息。
有关国债市场投资者情绪变化的进一步证据可以从10年期与2年期国债收益率曲线的走势中找到，正如图表2中展示的那样，10年期与2年期国债收益率曲线在2019全年以及2020年的1-2月不时趋平滑并出现倒挂，这反映出市场对衰退的担忧。
不过，作为对全球性刺激政策的反应，10年期与2年期国债收益率曲线在近期快速变陡峭，在央行降息后2年期国债收益率急剧下降而10年期国债收益率则上涨，这预示着债券投资者在预期2020年上半年可能的衰退后，下半年晚些时候的反弹。
图表2：10年期和2年期国债的收益率曲线同样急剧上升
来源：富时罗素。2020年3月17日。过去的表现并不意味着未来的结果。请参见结尾的法律信息。
更进一步的是，在欧盟与英国近期宣布大规模的货币与财政刺激计划后，美国的财政刺激计划仍在等待通过，这意味着债券投资者已经预期某种形式的“直升机撒钱”为期不远。
图表3：财政刺激计划的需求——“不计代价”地利用“直升机撒钱”
来源：富时罗素，Refinitiv。 2020年3月9日。过去的表现并不意味着未来的结果。请参见结尾的法律信息。
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本文标题：盈透证券：债券市场已经在展望下半年的曙光
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