The market is opening nervously this morning following a missile attack on Iraqi military bases which contain US troops. Gold currently is up nearly $40 since the NY close Trading at $1612 a 7 year high, similarly, US equities are on the slide. On Sunday, President Trump had threatened to impose sANCtions on Iraq, if as a foreign guest, US forces were expelled, and further promised to attack several Iranian sites if Iran were to retaliate following the recent assassination. But on Monday Wall Street finished higher on a US equity rally which was led in part by tech shares that simply ignored the rising geopolitical tensions. I prefer to look at the world from the point of view of oil. Who owns it. Who controls it. Where is it going, and increasingly in which currency is it denominated? Now, if you ask yourself privately those questions, you might come to the conclusion that oil is a new front in the trade war. And that tensions in the oil-producing middle east will escalate as American influence in the region is extended or alternatively rolled back.In China, pork prices rose 3.4% last week and are now up over 160% year on year, Chinese inflation data is due out tomorrow and is expected at 4.7%. It can be argued we are heading to peak pork prices as we approach Chinese New Year on 24th January following which the market may ease.But, with Brent currently at $72 the media talking heads are saying perhaps it is time to add commodities to one's portfolio, a sector that has been overlooked since 2007.Defensively, one might buy US treasuries and the couch potato stocks NETFlix, Facebook and Amazon as the US consumer decides to stay at home. But it would seem should the investing world allocate a small amount to commodities, inflation will be the end result, which will leave central banks unable to cut rates in times of crisis. It is that change in allocation, that is perhaps the most underpriced risk event of all.
Have a good day
John Browning先生于2002至2004年担任伦敦金属交易所LME的董事会成员和电子商务委员会主席,被业界公认在建立LME电子交易平台方面做出过突出贡献。
2008年,在移居到亚洲之前,Browning先生为伦敦巴克莱资本集团Barclays Capital电子交易部董事。在新际金融Newedge任职香港金属部主管时,他与石成虎先生共同开发了世界上第一个可同时交易国内和国外期货市场的套利交易系统。创立磐石之前,Browning先生任职Jefferies香港商品部董事总经理
本文标题:磐石金融:No 379 - Inflation is the underpriced risk event
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